TDE Pro · Charts
Market state first. Then confirmation. Then timing. Then valuation.
Today's brief
Neutral biasMar 16, 11:40 AMWhat improved
What still blocks the turn
Bottom line
Stay selective until the broader market confirms the move.
Upgrade triggers
Signal check
70% of tracked majors are above their 50D average.
BTC/ETH are up over 2W, but 1M skew still leans defensive at +6.1.
Basis is 20.6% annualized, so use this for entry/exit context, not for the market call.
MVRV-style valuation sits at 0.57, which still looks near fair value.
Market state. Use this to decide whether the market is strengthening or still weak.
What this means now
Global crypto market cap is expanding today. Snapshot-only mode: CoinGecko global market-cap history is unavailable on the current plan. BTC still leads the tape at 56.9% dominance.
Total market cap
$2.59T
24h volume
$90.2B
Active coins
18,116
Tracked markets
1,477
What this means now
70% of tracked majors (14/20) sit above their 50D average, which is broad enough to support a cleaner regime call.
Above 50D MA
70.0%
Tracked universe
14 / 20
20 majors tracked
1M breadth change
+65.0 pts
What this means now
ETF demand is improving but still selective: BTC sits at +$187M / +$616M on 7D / 30D, while ETH is -$56M / -$482M.
Bitcoin
7D
+$187M
30D
+$616M
Ethereum
7D
-$56M
30D
-$482M
BTC + ETH combined
7D
+$130M
30D
+$134M
Positioning read
Traders are adding long bets
Why
Funding is positive and open interest is growing, which usually means leverage is backing the move rather than getting forced out.
Open bets changing
Funding pressure
Total open bets are now $5.6B (+$0.2B vs roughly 3 days ago). Use this to judge leverage risk, not to call the whole market.
Confirmation checks. These should improve before you upgrade the market view.
Two-week performance for the two biggest coins
What this means now
ETH is leading, but both majors are above their 2-week baselines, which is good confirmation that leadership is improving. It helps, but it is not regime proof by itself.
What this means now
Downside protection is more expensive than upside bets at +6.1, which means traders are still paying up to hedge a drop.
Crash protection premium
+6.1
Above 0 = downside protection costs more
48.23%
Calls = upside bets
54.29%
Puts = crash protection
Data source: BTC options on Deribit, with the 30D point estimated from nearby expiries (Apr 3 → Apr 24).
What this means now
Short-term buying is improving in both BTC and ETH, but the 30D backdrop is still mixed at -$2.04B and -$842.3M. Better, not fully repaired.
BTC
24H
+$153.5M
7D
+$216.2M
30D
-$2.04B
ETH
24H
+$173.4M
7D
+$189.2M
30D
-$842.3M
How to read this
Positive = more aggressive buyers
CoinGlass measures market buyers minus market sellers on exchanges. It is not wallet inflow/outflow data.
Short-term setup. Useful for entries and exits, not for changing the market call.
What this means now
Leverage looks crowded (~20.6% annualized), which makes the market easier to shake out.
Think of basis like the premium traders pay to stay in leveraged futures. When it gets too high, the market becomes easier to knock over.
What this means now
Spot books look healthy across the tracked venues. BTC is carrying the deepest tape, while weighted spreads remain tight (BTC 0.015% · ETH 0.014%).
BTC volume
$1.98B
ETH volume
$1.97B
BTC spread
0.015%
ETH spread
0.014%
BTC
2 tracked venues
ETH
2 tracked venues
A simple 0–100 sentiment thermometer
What this means now
Sentiment is in extreme fear, which can improve tactical upside if price stabilizes, but it does not override weaker regime signals by itself.
What this means now
Short liquidations led the latest wipeout (~$22M total), which is useful tactical squeeze information but not a regime call by itself.
What this means now
Short-term rotation is constructive with most tracked sectors green, led by ERC 404 (+86.2%). Useful tactical context, not a regime anchor.
Selected category
ERC-404 is an experimental token standard that aims to bridge fungible tokens and NFTs to enable liquidity and fractionalization.
Drill-down
ERC-404 is an experimental token standard that aims to bridge fungible tokens and NFTs to enable liquidity and fractionalization.
24h move
+86.24%
24h volume
$68.6K
Top coins
Short-term momentum only — not the market call
What this means now
CFX is outrunning the downside in the speculative tape. Useful for momentum color, not for defining market structure.
Long-cycle context. This shows whether valuation still leaves room or is starting to overheat.
What this means now
Bitcoin looks roughly fair at 0.57 — not a screaming bargain, but not a classic overheating signal either.
This compares Bitcoin’s market price to the network’s historical cost basis. Lower readings have usually been better long-term entries; very high readings have often marked overheated cycles.